How the numbers are made
Every stock token on Robinhood Chain has a real share on an exchange. The pool price and the real price disagree all day. That gap is the premium. The desk measures it per pool and says what to do.
The idea
The premium wanders around zero. A range centered on the real price sells stock as the premium widens and buys it back as it closes. You sell and buy at the same average. The inventory nets to nothing and you earned the fee twice.
The only cost is the real price moving while you hold inventory. So the desk measures three things: how far the pool drifts, how fast it comes back, and how much the real price moves. Wide drift and a calm stock is a good book.
The columns
- Real is the last exchange print. Live in market hours, stale outside them.
- Pool is read from the pool contract, never an aggregator.
- Premium is pool over real, minus one. Positive is rich, negative is cheap.
- Band is the 10th to 90th percentile of the premium, market hours only, last five days, from five-minute candles against the real tape.
- Reverts in is the half-life of the premium. Short is good: a drift becomes a round trip quickly.
- Fees / day is 24h volume times the fee tier: what the pool paid all its LPs today. Compare pots, not yields. A yield on a tiny pool means nothing.
- Cost of the stock moving is loss versus rebalancing for the suggested band: annualized variance over eight, times the band's concentration. Rough, and the number fees must beat.
- Fee yield, this band is the pool's average fee yield scaled by how much tighter the band is than the pool's own liquidity. Both rates apply only while in range.
Where to quote
The range is the real price with the band on each side, snapped to the tick grid. The deposit mix follows from where the pool price sits in that range now.
One rule. Move the range when the real price moves, never because the pool drifted. Chasing the pool up buys stock above the real price. Chasing it down sells below.
The call
- Quote. Inside the band, and fees beat the cost of the stock moving.
- Wait, above band. A new range would be all USDG and would buy stock above the real price. Wait for the pool to come back.
- Wait, below band. A new range would be all stock and would sell it below the real price. Wait, or buy the discount outright.
- Skip, volatile. The stock moves more than fees cover for a band this tight.
- Skip, no drift. The band is narrower than two fee tiers. Little to earn.
- Skip, too small. Under $20k in the pool. Any position would be most of it.
What this cannot tell you
A gap through your band, earnings overnight say, leaves you holding the wrong asset with no floor. A range has no stop loss. Only an option is a floor.
When the market is closed the pool is the only venue open. A premium against the last close is partly news the tape has not priced. Those hours are shaded on every tape and left out of the band.
Premiums are bounded by whoever can mint and redeem at the real price and what it costs them. That sets the width of every band here. It is not published and it can change.
Sources
Pool prices from Robinhood Chain over public RPC. Pool history, size, and volume from GeckoTerminal. Real prices from Alpaca's IEX feed, or a delayed source when no keys are set, and the desk says which. The pool list is found on-chain for every token in Robinhood's registry: v3 from the canonical factory, v4 by computing pool ids and checking them on StateView. Ghost pools priced far from the share are dropped. Where a stock has several pools the desk uses the one that pays most per dollar and lists the rest on its page. See coverage.